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America's Future

Published 09/19/09 Craig Harrington with Eamonn Fingleton - Print Article
E-mail - editor@economyincisis.org


Editor's note: This series originally ran in June. The following is the first interview in a six part series with economist Eamonn Fingleton. Tune in daily this week to watch all six groundbreaking interviews.

      

In the above interview Fingleton discusses how the present collapse of the American financial, consumer, and employment markets reflect on our near and long-term prospects.  The future – in his eyes – is bleak, and the day of reckoning is rapidly approaching. 

      

The United States still has a nominal lead in terms of the sheer size of its economy.  However, in terms of the actual scope and stability of our economy, the U.S. was surpassed by growing economies in Western Europe and East Asia long ago.  As the United States become more leveraged and unstable, other countries became secure and diversified.  The current state of the American economy is living proof of this fact. 

Click here for Part 2 in this series.

Download the full interview on iTunes.

Eamonn Fingleton is the author of In the Jaws of the Dragon: America’s Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony. A former editor for the Financial Times and Forbes, he has written on East Asian and global issues for the The Atlantic Magazine, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Harvard Business Review.

Click here to contact your Representative in Congress.

Unless the above article is already copyrighted, this article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License, EIC grants permission to use this article in whole or in part provided attribution is given, preferably in the form of a link back to EconomyInCrisis.org.

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Article Comments From Readers

guest says "Responsibility" on 09/22/09
If people are made responsible for creating misery of others, we would not be in the Jaws of the Dragon. The health insurance is just a side show.

guest says "required to have Car insurance" on 09/22/09
Because they are held accountable for damage unlike people who show up for medical treatment and aren't held accountable for the bill. The government can pass a car insurance law and try to enforce it, how do they enforce a health insurance law ? Stop people on the streets on check to see it the have health insurance, New Hampshire has no car insurance law and no major problem not having one. Outlaws in other states don't care about car insurance laws so passing a nation health care insurance requirement won't mean people who refused to be policed will comply with it.

People need food to live, try taking some and not pay for it and see what happens. The government has ok'ed theft of services from the medical industry.

The government legalised theft so people steal medical care. Most would carry insurance if they would be held accountable for their medical bills. people carry car insurance because they will be held accountable for not having it.

The government has passed laws driving up the cost of health insurance for responsable people while passing laws that let irresposable people off the hook for their medical bills so the government created the mess while giving companies tax breaks for providing their employee's with golden health care polices because it's a 100% tax write off.

it's not looking like they are going to improve the situation at all, just make it worse.



guest says "Car Insurance and Health" on 09/21/09
All car owners are required to have Car insurance. Car insurance price would be lower if there would not have been too many drunk drivers and now texting while driving.

A car insurance is not like a health insurance because, you do not have to have a car to survive. In the land of the free, the government owns your body because as a citizen, you can not buy medication on demand without a prescription. The government reasons that if you buy Lipitor without prescription, it may hurt your body that they own.

In Mexico and even in India, you can buy medication without prescription. That is because, they think, it is your body and you might know what you are doing. In the USA, I can not even buy medication over the internet for my own consumption. It is highly regulated for my own benefit.

So, since my body belongs to the Government, it is my body's right that the government takes care of my body that they own. Because I am not allowed to.

By the way, in the last 40 years, every prescription I got from my doctors, I told them what I want and they comply - because I do the research before seeing the doctor. Why I go to the doctor? Because our government does not allow me to self-medicate. Because my body belongs to the land of the free!

guest says "health care insurance" on 09/21/09
I used to pay under $100 for major medical coverage threw a trade association when I was part of a national group exempt from state meddling in the groups coverage.

After leaving the association I had to pay $200 for blue cross because i was captive of state regulators.
Went looking to move and drew MASS off the list because it was $800 a month and went to another state and paid $300 a month.

I buy health insurance to protect my assets, not pay minor doctors bills. The federal government wants everyone to buy full coverage plans if they make enough to afford them and than will give full coverage plans to low income people and let other people pay the cost.

headaches will get a CAT scan, a cold lets go to the doctor, it could be deadly and don't cost nothing because it's FREE.

In CA the price dropped 50% for woman needing to add some size because it's customer pay and not covered by insurance.

I was stupid and needed two stitches, only had major medical, they wanted my insurance card and for the next 6 months bombed me with paper work in the mail and bills and i sent out about 5 checks for 3 visits to a doctors office, not an emergency room.

it would make more sense to just hand them my credit card when I was there, paid the bill on the spot and move on, customer treated, customer paid the bill and onto the next customer instead of months of paperwork and billing by an army of billing clerks.

Does car insurance cover oil changes ? no and we don't get a bill from NAPA for the oil filter, another one from exxon for the oil and another one from the garage after the insurance company factors in co-pays and than send out 3 checks. An oil change would cost probably twice as much if not more.

We don't call our home owners insurance if the water heater needs to be replaced, we just pay out of pocket for a replacement.

the whole mess was created by the government because they let companies write off 100% of the cost of their employee's health insurance coverage and people think getting the government more involved will make things better, they need to be less involved.

No problem with medical care for pets because government meddling doesn't exist at the VETS.

guest says "Somebody" on 09/21/09
"Somebody will come along with a low overhead temp agency so employers don't have to pay $100 an hour for a $50 an hour temp employee. Amazon.com for temp employee's. Just give it time an it will happen where people can directly market themselves to people needed temp labor cutting out the high cost middle man. "

The complete faith that "Somebody" will show up and save the day is just that - a leap of faith without any basis. Perhaps that is why, our government can not do anything and health care cost outpacing inflation to the point the country is ready to go bankrupt.

That somebody will rise and save the Greek and Roman civilization did not happen. That somebody will rise and save the British empire or the USSR or the Argentina economy did not happen.

The worse part is this faith will be blind to the "Jaws of the Dragon" until eaten up by the Dragon.

It is difficult to debate with a person with Taliban like blind faith. Intelligent discourse is out of the question. And so it is what it is.


guest says "opportunist middle men" on 09/21/09
middle men get in on the action when others fail to market themselves and skim off other peoples labor. The high priced imported shirt exists because somebody spots an oppertunity, same as the building contractor who is able to make a lot of profit. People invested in the retail outlets, inventory, land & equipment or in marketing the service in the case of something like an IT subcontractor type deal.

what does the worker have on the line ?

The business people are putting their capitol at risk or others people capitol at risk who are willing to take the risk, a parasite has nothing at risk. Nobody forced anyone to trust bernie madoff, they freely choose to so aren't victims without a choice, they made their choice.

People with capitol can become labor racketeers after investing money to fund whatever business they are in. Welfare Wanda is open to exploitation by a cleaning service because she has no capitol to buy a vehicle, supplies an equipment. The person who funded her equipment needs put their capitol at risk or somebody elses and she has nothing in the game or does she market her labor.

If the local lawn care/snow plow guy gets greedy somebody can come along and undercut him so there is checks and balances. That doesn't exist when the government gets involved or do they give anyone a choice in whether to take part in paying the bill.

If wal-mart decided to put an extra 1 million people on the payroll and pass along the cost of supporting the ghost employees to the consumer people would shop someplace else, if the government makes all sorts of do nothing jobs and passes out checks to all sorts of friends of government who do nothing at all, everyone has no choice but to pay.

All the big full service stock brokers went bankrupt because people took their business to the $9.99 a trade places, so the full serive places priced themselves out of business with their big fat commissions and now ETF are taking business away from high overhead managed mutual funds.

The oppertunists don't live on forever, somebody comes along and undercuts them passing the savings onto the consumer. People are buying container loads of imports and selling stuff on the streets/flea markets an in $1.00 stores, so much for the 500% markup gang.

Somebody will come along with a low overhead temp agency so employers don't have to pay $100 an hour for a $50 an hour temp employee. Amazon.com for temp employee's. Just give it time an it will happen where people can directly market themselves to people needed temp labor cutting out the high cost middle man.

guest says "Parasite Funds" on 09/21/09
The guest is confusing Parasites with real Oak Trees. Seven years ago, I had a healthy Sweet Gum tree that had parasite runners all over. I neglected that tree in favor of the Pine trees. The tree started dying from several branches and this year it is practically dead all the while the parasite runners were growing very well. Now they too are dying.

There is a big difference between pension funds who invest in new productive companies thereby earn money in the stock market; and funds that go in to slicing and dicing bad investments or creating bubbles all the while skimming off the top of real productive work. The real value of a house built by a person making $30 per hour is based on that labor. But if you charge $130 per hour through a middleman, that $100 is the bubble that passed on to the society. That is parasitic. When a company manufactures a shirt in the USA and sells with 20% profit that is Capitalism. When the same company imports from Timbuktu and sells at 500% profit that is parasitic.

Initially parasites may look cute, but over the years even your mighty oak tree dies. Most parasite activities are due to special regulation, rules to block new entry and not open competition. That is why Prime contractors are able to charge the government $350 per hour using the people who only make $50 per hour. I know a large company that hires my friend’s company to do all the real work where 25% of the gross income goes to my friend’s company while 75% goes to that large company. This process raises the real cost of the customer who passes that to the public. When the entire forest is full of parasite runners – then the forest dies.

Then there are companies that produce products and services that are like weeds like soft drinks. They provide little benefit and create all shorts of health problems in the society. They are like the Kudzu vine. The south has near perfect conditions for Kudzu– hot summers, mild winters with few hard freezes, high humidity and normally high amounts of rainfall, and no natural predators. In fact, it grows much better here in the south than it does in it’s native land of Japan. As a result, this vine now covers more than 7 million acres in the southern US, and has destroyed much forest and farm land, both public and private.

Knowing the difference is essential to the growth and prosperity of America.

guest says "the parasitic financial sector" on 09/21/09
http://www.city-data.com/

enter your zip code and see all the parasites getting dividends and capitol gains in your neighborhood, use your computer to do it, the parasite class funded the start up costs for most of the computer industry and your school system sold muni bonds so it could build schools for you and your children who might go to college, they have endowment funds invested on evil wall street.

than go visit all the retired people around your neighborhood and ask them if their pension check comes every month because the pension fund invested in corporate america and made money to be able to pay them a nice pension.

ask yourself how high your taxes would be if the government pension funds didn't make money on wall-street and you had to pay the whole bill for the legacy costs for your local grossly overpaid government workers.


guest says "More on Parasites" on 09/20/09
“The problem with parasites is not merely that they siphon off the food and nourishment of their host, crippling its reproductive power, but that they take over the host's brain as well. The parasite tricks the host into thinking that it is feeding itself.”

Something like this is happening today as the financial sector devours the industrial sector. Finance capital pretends that its growth is that of industrial capital formation. That is why the financial bubble is called "wealth creation," as if it were what progressive economic reformers envisioned a century ago. These reformers condemned rent and monopoly profit, but never dreamed that the financiers would end up devouring landlord and industrialist alike. Emperors of Finance have trumped Barons of Property and Captains of Industry alike.

According to Hudson, you can think of the financial sector as being wrapped around the real economy, almost like a kind of parasite, and that's why it's been called parasitic for so long. The financial sector extracts interest from the real economy, just as the property sector extracts economic rent. However, the key thing about parasites is that it's not simply that they extract nourishment from their host. This parasite takes over the host's brain, to make it think that it (the parasitic financial sector) is an integral part of the economy, to make the brain think that the parasite is part of the host's own body, and/or that it's almost like a child of the host, to be protected. And that's exactly what the financial sector has accomplished in recent years in the United States. In reality however the parasitic financial sector is bleeding the real economy to death, sucking out all its blood, even as the real economy protects it and continues to regard it as part of itself.

see: http://www.opednews.com/articles/Are-financial-parasites-ki-by-Richard-Clark-090904-783.html

guest says "Parasites" on 09/20/09
Before USA becomes a Banana Republic, we need to reverse the downward trend of losing the artisan crafts (engineers) and processes. There may come a time in just next 3 to 4 years after which it would be impossible to go back.

It took India about 30 years to build up those processes and talent. Same for China. Both countries spend very little time and resources in sports, but do spend a lot in promoting science and technology. We did the same in late 50's and early 60's, but in the last 30 years slowly moved to non-productive education hoping that the China and India will carry us in to the future.

Consider this. Our government hires a lot of temporary workers everyday to do Billions of Dollars of projects in almost every department. They do this through a layer of Prime Contractors and Sub-Contractors. The Government pays about $130 per hour to $180 per hour through these contractors for usually 5 years for a person who makes $30 per hour. $60/hr becomes $350/hr to the government (ref: GSA schedule). The differential is the parasite fund that the government wastes that does very little productive work. One would think, with all the talk of severe budget deficit, and waste - the Government would be smart enough to directly hire on a temporary basis these workers.

The same thing happens to the private industries too. Large companies hire programmers, developers, architects through a layer of subcontractors as if temporary workers are a novel idea. This raises the cost of service or product without adding value.

The point is, we may not able to compete with anyone in the world when our society is becoming a parasite based society with very few artisans and rest parasites living off of the artisans.

Once you are a parasite, it is hard to do real productive work to earn a living. No one talks about this as the parasites protect their own until all the life force is drained out.

guest says "blame game" on 09/20/09
blame congress & CEO's for the problem, not NIMBY people who drove up the cost of doing business in the USA, not the poverty pimps that enable people to live off their neighbors hard work. Not the soccer moms who demanded grossly overpaid gym teachers and multimillion dollar sports programs for their kids which all add to the cost of doing business in the USA. Don't blame the honest hard working citizens that need an army of traffic cops to baby sit them because they can't behave themselves which drives up the cost of doing business in the USA.

Don't blame the people who sat on school boards and rubber stamped labor contracts written by the unions or town councils doing the samething so the chief of police of bugtussle gets a 6 figure retirement income with the best health care in the world for driving business out of the USA.

We have $80k first grade teachers and $100k cops & firemen in bedroom communities who retire in their 50's and it's all the fault of the people in ivory towers, The citizens had nothing to do with any of it, they just minded their own business and drove their imported cars down to wal-mart to stock up on chicom goodies and than went joy riding on a tank full of Opec fuel on the way back to their 4,000 square foot energy hog house.

They are entitled to it all and those evil employers should pay them 6 figure salaries so they can have it all and pay big taxes to support all the government they are entitled to as Americans.

IBM just about left vermont, they got tired of the parasites feeding off them and all their workers thinking they where entitled to 6 figure incomes to show up at work.
i don't blame them for taking the work to India and other places and going global instead of staying put so the parasites could suck them dry until the company died. The parasites haven't cared for decades, was always another host to feed off of, they are about to find out they killed off their food supply when the whole country is dead.

guest says "Cheap manufacturing through currency manipulation" on 09/19/09
To whoever wrote "Going...Going...Gone": I liked your entry. It articulates clearly what outsourcing has done to America. No, its not just Barbie dolls and fly swatters but sophisticated high technology products - and with the manufacturing goes all of the other design, support, and business development jobs.

Meanwhile, the free trade fundamentalist stooges in Congress sit by as the American people sink into service sector jobs as waitresses, bar tenders, fast food workers, ... Why? Because multinational corporations have profited greatly by this outsourcing and have essentially bribed Congress, through campaign donations, to spoil any attempt to level the "free trade" playing field.

How did Japan, China, South Korea, ... acquire this expertise over time? A key factor was that they manipulated their currencies - their yen, yuan, ... - to keep them artificially weak against the US dollar. That's cheating and its not fair to American workers and business. Meanwhile, the free trade fundamentalist stooges in Congress sit by and do nothing as America suffers from the effects of this illegal currency manipulation.

guest says "Going...Going...Gone" on 09/19/09


Many high-tech products can no longer be manufactured in the United States because critical knowledge, skills, and suppliers of advanced materials, tools, production equipment, and components have been lost through outsourcing. Many other products are on the verge of the same fate.

Semiconductors:
ALREADY LOST ("Fabless" chips)
AT RISK - DRAMs, Flash memory chips

Lighting:
ALREADY LOST (Compact fluorescent lighting)
AT RISK - LEDs for solid-state lighting, signs, indicators, and backlights

Electronic displays:
ALREADY LOST (LCDs for monitors, TVs... )
AT RISK - Next-generation "electronic paper" displays for portable devices like
e-readers, retail signs, and advertising displays

Energy storage and green energy production:
ALREADY LOST - Lithium-ion, lithium polymer, and NiMH batteries for cell phones,
portable consumer electronics, laptops, and power tools, Advanced rechargeable
batteries (NiMH, Li-ion) for hybrid vehicles

Crystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar cells, inverters, and
power semiconductors for solar panels

AT RISK - Thin-film solar cells (the newest solar-power technology)

Computing and communications:
ALREADY LOST (Desktop, notebook, and netbook PCs
Low-end servers, Hard disk drives)
AT RISK - Blade servers, midrange servers, Mobile handsets
Optical-communication components, Core network equipment

Advanced Materials:
ALREADY LOST - Advanced composites used in sporting goods and other consumer gear
Advanced ceramics, Integrated circuit packaging

AT RISK - Carbon composite components for aerospace and wind energy applications


Lithium polymer battery - MADE IN CHINA
REASON Battery development and manufacturing migrated from the U.S. to Asia along with the development and manufacture of consumer electronics and notebook computers.

Controller board MADE IN CHINA
REASON U.S. companies long ago outsourced the manufacture of printed circuit boards to Asia, where there is now a huge supplier base.

guest says "AMERICAS FUTURE" on 06/29/09
WHERS ALL THE JOBS OBAMA SAID WOULD HAPPEN, SINCE HES COME INTO POWER, WE HAVE MASSIVE DEBT,MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT,AND HE DID ALL THIS IN 6 MONTHS, IM NOT BLAMING HIM FOR EVERYTHING, BUT ITS NOW HIS WATCH AND THE ONLY CHANGE I SEE COMING FROM HIM IS MORE AND MORE OF THE SAME DEBT AND UNEMPLOYMENT, TO ALL THOSE THAT VOTED FOR OBAMA, DONT YOU FEEL ENCOURAGED NOW